Aston Villa’s place in next season’s Champions League has been thrown into doubt after a shock 2-0 defeat to bottom-of-the-table Wolves at Molineux on Friday night.
Goals from Joao Gomes and Rodrigo Gomes were enough the secure the win for Wolves, whose disciplined defensive display frustrated Villa throughout the night.
The result not only dented Villa’s hold on a top four spot but also ensured Wolves avoided the unwanted record of the lowest points tally in Premier League history – moving onto 13 points, two clear of Derby County’s notorious 11-point return in the 2007/08 season.
While Wolves are making sure they are not getting relegated without a fight, the ramifications for Villa are significant.
A visibly frustrated Unai Emery headed straight down the tunnel at full-time, aware that his side had missed a crucial opportunity to put breathing space between them and a resurgent Manchester United, who now sit just three points behind them with a game in hand.
With only one win in their last six league matches and some difficult fixtures looming against fellow top four contenders Manchester United and Chelsea, what once appeared a comfortable Champions League position suddenly looks vulnerable.
Emery laments lost momentum as rivals gain ground
Just a month ago, Villa were being discussed as outside title contenders.
Now they are firmly embroiled in a dog fight for the top five.
“One month ago I was dreaming about maybe winning the Premier League. Now we are in the average to be in the top five,” Emery admitted post-match.
“Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, they are trying to get to us, for them it is a priority to get into the Champions League.”
The Spaniard is right to be concerned.
United have surged into contention with five wins from their last six league games.
Liverpool, after a turbulent run from October to November, have only lost twice in their 15 games since their 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Nottingham Forest and sit only six points behind Villa with a game in hand.
Chelsea, despite frustrating and dropping points against Burnley and Leeds in recent matches, also remain within striking distance of the Villans.
The contrast in their league position from the beginning of February to now is stark.
Villa held an eight-point lead over United, nine over Chelsea, and ten over Liverpool.
That margin has steadily eroded, and unless their form improves quickly, Villa’s Champion’s League aspirations could be under serious threat by the end of March.
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Who is best placed to finish in the top four?
Data from Opta, compiled by The Athletic, provides some encouragement for Villa supporters.
Chelsea have been rated as having the toughest remaining schedule (given a difficulty score of 94), with daunting fixtures against Liverpool, Manchester United, Arsenal, Newcastle, Manchester City, and Tottenham still to come.
Aston Villa, by contrast, have been given better odds, with their run in ranked fourth-easiest (91.8), marginally more favourable than Liverpool (92), while Manchester United rank 14th for difficulty (92.9).
However, there are no easy games in the Premier League anymore, with its influx of money over the last 20 years meaning that even the 20th placed team can be a danger to anyone – as we learnt Friday night.
Thirteen Premier League clubs rank among the world’s top 25 in the ELO ratings – a performance-based metric used to measure and compare team strength – underlining the quality and strength that lies in the Premier League these days.
Importantly, the Premier League is widely expected to receive an additional Champions League place based on English clubs’ performances in Europe this season.
This means Villa do not have to be perfect, with a fifth-placed finish likely being enough to secure qualification.
Opta’s supercomputer currently predicts Villa to finish third on 67 points and assigns them a 72% probability of qualifying for the Champions League.
Liverpool and Manchester United are both projected to finish on 64 points, with Chelsea trailing on 61.
A thrilling end to the season awaits
The congestion across the entire league table has created one of the most unpredictable Premier League run-ins for years.
Manchester City continue to push Arsenal in the title race, while the battles for the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League qualification remain fiercely contested.
At the other end of the table, the relegation scrap appears destined to go down to the wire, even placing league stalwarts Tottenham in potential jeopardy.
Villa must focus on themselves and rediscover the form that has propelled them into the top four, or risk watching their Champions League dreams slip away.
The next few weeks may define not only their season, but the trajectory of the club under Emery’s tenure.
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SportJustSport writers