UEFA Nations League: Group stage, Matchday 3 betting tips and previews for Croatia vs England, France vs Italy and more

UEFA Nations League - Matchday 3 betting tips and previews

The UEFA Nations League tables are beginning to take shape across all groups, with teams now getting a clearer idea of their strengths and weaknesses.

All the big nations are up and running, barring Germany, who are yet to taste victory. Jurgen Klopp’s team sit third in Group B after two rounds, drawing once before suffering a shock 1-0 home defeat at the hands of Greece, who are also the group leaders.

Elsewhere, Spain continue to show why they are the world champions. La Roja have picked up from where they left off at the World Cup, beating England 3-2 in a high-profile encounter at Wembley before following it up with a convincing 4-1 win over Croatia at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan.

England have also returned to winning ways following their 2-3 home defeat in their last encounter, securing a solid 2-0 away win against Czechia.

Moreover, France have started the next era under Zinedine Zidane with flying colours, winning their opening two games without conceding a goal.

Here, Sport Just Sport writer Anurag Tyagi scours the markets for the televised top-flight tussles from Matchday 3 of the UEFA Nations League and provides some suggested predictions and bets for them.

Croatia vs England, Saturday, October 3 at 19:45 (BST)

England suffered their first defeat following a third-place finish at the FIFA World Cup, going down 3-2 at Wembley against reigning world champions Spain.

However, the result could have been very different, with England having enough chances to take something from the game.

Costly defensive errors and a missed penalty ultimately played their part as the Three Lions came away empty-handed from their fortress.

But Thomas Tuchel’s team finally got most things right during their 2-0 away win against Czechia.

The English side did get some help from the hosts, who were in disarray at the back and were reduced to 10 men after Pavel Sulc’s rash tackle high above the ankle on Elliot Anderson resulted in a red card.

For Croatia, this is a do-or-die game. A home match against England and a chance to move above the Three Lions means the stakes are certainly high for Luka Modric and his colleagues.

Croatia are also on three points, the same as England, after two rounds, courtesy of a 2-1 away win at Czechia.

It’s worth highlighting that this game will be played behind closed doors due to incidents involving Croatia during their Nations League ties against France in March 2025. The Croatian Football Federation (HNS) were also fined around £80,000.

Team news

Trent Alexander-Arnold returned to England’s starting XI against Czechia and put in a solid performance, capped by an assist for England’s opening goal scored by Anthony Gordon. The Real Madrid star should keep his place in Tuchel’s side here.

Despite the likes of Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo and Tino Livramento all pulling out, England still have good options.

Tuchel still had the luxury of bringing Jude Bellingham off the bench against Czech Republic, but expect the former Borussia Dortmund playmaker to be named in the starting XI against Croatia.

Ezri Konsa shrugged off a minor niggle and was named on the bench, although the Arsenal star remained an unused substitute. Expect the former Aston Villa defender to start this match.

Lewis Hall returned from injury and played the full game against Czechia. The Newcastle United star should feature against Croatia.

There are no major injury concerns for Croatia ahead of their next game against England. However, head coach Slaven Bilić has plenty to ponder when it comes to the combination of his starting XI.

Croatia legend Luka Modrić started on the bench against Spain and could be drafted straight into the starting XI against England.

Head-to-head

England got the better of Croatia at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, winning 4-2 with two goals from Harry Kane and a strike each from Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford. It was England’s third straight win over Croatia.

Overall, England have lost just three times in 12 matches against Croatia heading into this game.

Match odds

Croatia are 31/10, with the draw at 14/5 and England odds-on favourites at 10/11.

Suggested bet

England have issues at the back and we think they are likely to concede. But a closely fought 2-1 win for the Three Lions seems the most likely outcome.

READ MORE: Nations League news: England get campaign up and running with 2-0 win over Czechia

England get Nations League campaign up and running with win over Czechia
England get Nations League campaign up and running with win over Czechia

France vs Italy, Friday, October 2 at 19:45 (BST)

Arguably the standout fixture of Matchday 3, with two giants, France and Italy, set to go head-to-head.

Roberto Mancini’s second spell as Italy manager started with a disappointing 2-0 home defeat against Belgium. It was a familiar sight for Azzurri fans, as Mancini’s men hardly produced anything of substance going forward.

But a much-changed side brought the best out of Italy on a tough trip to Turkey, as they brushed aside Turkiye 4-1, thanks to goals from Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi, Michael Kayode and Pio Esposito.

Mancini’s men will have to be at their best against France, who have made a perfect start under Zidane with two wins and two clean sheets.

France have also won both games by a one-goal margin, making this a much tougher test for Italy.

Team news

Kylian Mbappe suffered a hyperextension of the posterior capsule in his left knee in the same minute in which he scored against Turkiye. The Real Madrid superstar is now expected to be out for two weeks.

There are no other major injury concerns for Zidane ahead of this game. However, France are expected to make changes to the XI that started the 1-0 win over Belgium.

Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise are both in line to start after featuring from the bench against Belgium.

Dayot Upamecano and Maxence Lacroix are expected to partner at the back, with Liverpool youngster Jeremy Jacquet likely to drop to the bench.

Mancini has every reason to stick with the same XI he named against Turkiye after a strong attacking display.

That said, Nicolo Barella and Diego Coppola were left out of the squad for the trip to Turkiye, but both are expected to feature against France.

Head-to-head

Italy have dominated this fixture historically, winning 19 of their 39 head-to-head meetings against France, while losing 12 times and drawing eight.

However, the recent record tells a very different story. France have lost just three times to Italy in their last 16 meetings since 1982, winning 10 of those games.

It highlights the contrasting trajectories of the two sides, with France dominating international football while Italy have struggled, missing out on three consecutive World Cups.

Match odds

France are odds-on favourites at 4/9, with the draw at 17/4 and Italy at 6/1.

Suggested bet

Italy have shown improvement under Roberto Mancini, but we think this game against France may have come too soon for the Azzurri.

The hosts have too much quality and should have enough to get the job done.

France to keep a clean sheet and win 2-0.

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Spain vs Czechia, Saturday, October 3 at 19:45 (BST)

Red-hot Spain will look to continue their jaw-dropping form when they host Czechia in Matchday 3 of the UEFA Nations League 2026/27.

The world champions made light work of Croatia in their last game, securing a scintillating 4-1 win. That result sees Spain sit top of Group C, with Croatia and England locked on three points.

Spain are on a historic 40-game unbeaten streak, with their last defeat coming in a 1-0 loss against Colombia in an international friendly on March 22, 2024.

During this run, La Roja have won Euro 2024 and the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Luis de la Fuente’s team are also on a nine-game winning run since playing out a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde at the FIFA World Cup.

Meanwhile, Czechia have suffered defeats in their opening two games of the UEFA Nations League.

Overall, they have lost three of their last four games heading into this match, with their most recent outing ending in a 2-0 home defeat against England in the Nations League.

Team news

Spain have reported no injury concerns ahead of this game, but expect some changes to the line-up from their last outing.

After starting the first two games in the Nations League, Lamine Yamal could feature from the bench, while Ferran Torres and Dani Olmo should also get a chance after remaining unused against Croatia.

Former Manchester City centre-back Aymeric Laporte is also in contention for a start.

Czechia are also expected to make changes to their starting XI, but have no major injury concerns ahead of this game.

Defensive midfielder Pavel Šulc will miss the game following his red card against England in the last match.

Head-to-head

Italy may be going through a difficult run of results, but they have had the better of their recent meetings with Belgium.

The Azzurri have remained unbeaten against the Red Devils since 2015, winning four of their five encounters during that period, including victories at Euro 2016 and Euro 2020.

Match odds

Spain are overwhelming favourites at 2/17, with the draw priced at 10/1 and Czechia huge outsiders at 25/1.

Suggested bet

This is expected to be a one-sided affair, with Spain likely to continue their free-flowing, attacking football. La Roja should have too much for Czechia, and a 3-0 win looks the most likely outcome.

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