F1 analysis: Which teams stand to gain or lose out from the April break – McLaren, Mercedes, and more

Piastri, Norris, Antonelli, and Russell

A five-week break at the start of an F1 season is the kind of curveball no team plans for – but one that could quietly reshape the pecking order.

With momentum stalled and development clocks reset, the unexpected April break may prove a turning point: a lifeline for some and a looming setback for others. 

Gainer – McLaren

McLaren is one of the teams set to gain an advantage from the April break.

One could say that any team trying to chase down Mercedes will gain from this break, but with a rumoured large upgrade package prepared for Miami, McLaren is certainly one of the biggest winners.

McLaren has been known in recent seasons to be the king of mid-season development and, specifically, the upgrades they typically bring to Miami.

Miami is known to be a season-changing race for McLaren, evidenced in their 2023 and 2024 seasons.

As a result, the missed running in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is less likely to interrupt their development plans too much, as their focus was likely to be on Miami anyway.

After a disappointing start to the season, with a double DNS in China due to engine problems, the break will also bring much-welcomed time to try and understand the relationship between their car and its engine.

The last race out in Japan demonstrated McLaren already showing better performance and posing a slight threat to Mercedes, so if development continues positively, we could potentially see a real battle.

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David Croft and Martin Brundle

Loser – Mercedes

The team at the greatest disadvantage from the April break is undoubtedly Mercedes.

With such a dominant start to the season, the team are far ahead of the competition.

However, with greater time for their competitors to learn and develop their cars now, the Mercedes’ advantage could diminish.

In all likelihood, Mercedes would have continued to dominate in the Middle Eastern races, bagging valuable points for the team before others had the chance to catch up.

There is also the issue around Mercedes’ controversial engine compression ratio.

With stricter rules around this being enforced in June, Mercedes would have hoped to bag as many points as possible before this change.

Though it is unclear whether the rule change will have any impact at all on Mercedes’ performance and its customer teams too, some buffer and reassurance in the shape of championship points would have been welcomed.

Gainer – Red Bull

Red Bull’s season has been nothing but disappointing so far, plagued by reliability issues and a general lack of pace.

Speaking to the media after the Japanese Grand Prix, drivers Isack Hadjar and Max Verstappen were vocal about the car being “all over the place”.

This lack of consistency with the car means that the team are haemorrhaging lap time and are so far a long way off the top three teams.

Verstappen has also said more than once that the car is simply undriveable.

With these woes, Red Bull would welcome the break and extra time to understand the gremlins with their car.

They simply need to find improvements, not only to be more competitive this season but also to prevent them from potentially losing Verstappen.

The April break could prove to be make or break for the Red Bull team.

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Loser – Aston Martin

Aston Martin have had a frankly embarrassing start to their season, with their issues being far and wide.

Some would argue that the April break would prove useful to the team, giving them time to analyse their issues and generate potential solutions.

However, with their situation being so dire, five weeks won’t be enough to produce the miracles the team so desperately need.

What they do need is data, and this comes from mileage.

The team have been treating the races so far as test sessions essentially, gathering vital data for both the chassis and the engine as the only team running a Honda power unit.

With two fewer opportunities for the team to obtain this crucial data, there will be a further lack of understanding of their issues, making any improvements any time soon unlikely.

Gainer – Williams

Williams’ start to the season hasn’t exactly been a pretty picture so far either.

Having made impressive progress in late 2025 and repeatedly promoting that all their focus is on the 2026 season, their current lacklustre performance has fallen short of expectations.

Williams also treated Alex Albon’s Japanese Grand Prix as a test session, similar to Aston Martin, due to a dire lack of performance.

As with McLaren, Williams are also a Mercedes power unit customer team and have had similar issues incorporating the engine into the overall package of their car.

However, Williams’ issues don’t stop at the engine.

The car is overweight, and the chassis and aerodynamic load are lacking.

It is clear that Williams has a lot of work to do across the entire package, and the five-week break will allow them to better understand these issues and come up with potential solutions, even if they aren’t immediately resolvable.

When the paddock reconvenes in Miami, in a season as finely balanced as F1, this unexpected pause could end up being less of a break and more of a reset.

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By Ella Magyar

Ella Magyar did her master's degree in Business of Motorsport at the National Motorsport Academy.

She writes about motorsport for Sport Just Sport, specialising in the Formula series (F1, F2, F3).

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