By Luke Mullaney
Ilia Topuria’s achievements should not guarantee him an immediate opportunity to reclaim the UFC lightweight title.
The former two-division champion (lightweight and featherweight) suffered his first professional defeat against Justin Gaethje at UFC Freedom 250.
After four rounds of taking an absolute beating, Topuria lost his sight, which ultimately led to his team stopping the fight.
Understandably, Topuria wants an immediate rematch with Gaethje, but due to the one-sided nature of the first fight, that’s not justifiable.
The UFC now has an opportunity to book a fight between a couple of the sport’s biggest stars and personalities, who just so happen to hate each other.
Topuria must earn another crack at the title, and what better way to make a comeback than to beat Paddy Pimblett.
The long-standing beef between the two will only add another promotional layer and therefore produce one of the fights of the year.
Topuria searching for redemption
Topuria initially began his reign at featherweight by knocking out Alexander Volkanovski in early 2024 to claim the title.
Later that year, he became the first and only fighter to stop Max Holloway, knocking him down with a powerful hook and finishing the fight with strikes.
Topuria then moved up to lightweight and knocked out Charles Oliveira in the first couple of minutes of round one to claim the lightweight title and seal his double-champ status.
However, Gaethje exposed weaknesses that had rarely been seen throughout Topuria’s undefeated rise.
Gaethje survived Topuria’s dangerous opening attacks and increasingly took control as the fight progressed.
By the fourth round, Topuria had accumulated so much damage and taken so much punishment that he was unable to continue fighting.
The stoppage came without controversy as Gaethje decisively punished Topuria across all four rounds and removed any immediate uncertainty over who the better fighter was that night.
Due to the severity of the defeat, Topuria should be given adequate time to recover from his injuries.
He reportedly suffered a broken nose along with fractures to both orbital bones during the fight.
It would be unnecessary to force the former champion into another five-round championship fight straight away.
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Pimblett on the rise
Topuria remains one of the UFC’s biggest stars and is likely only one impressive victory away from earning another title opportunity.
That victory, however, should be earned through facing top competition in a title eliminator fight.
And with his extremely fast victory against dangerous contender Benoit Saint-Denis, Pimblett has found himself at the top of the division, well within title contention.
Interestingly, Pimblett also suffered his first defeat in the UFC against Justin Gaethje in early January.
While the fight was competitive throughout all five rounds, Gaethje won a comfortable unanimous decision to attain the interim lightweight title.
Pimblett’s defeat to Gaethje raised questions as to whether he was ready to compete amongst the lightweight division’s top competitors.
Shortly after, Pimblett responded to the loss with the best performance of his career at UFC 329 against the best opponent that he’s ever faced.
Pimblett submitted dangerous French contender Saint Denis with a D’Arce choke just 52 seconds into the opening round.
Saint Denis had recently stopped Dan Hooker and was expected to provide Pimblett with another extremely difficult test.
Pimblett entered the bout as an underdog, with the fight being a 50/50 fight at best.
Instead, Pimblett capitalised immediately on an attempted takedown and choked Saint Denis unconscious in under a minute.
The victory proved that Pimblett remains a serious lightweight contender, but the win against Saint Denis shouldn’t be enough to earn another shot at the title.
A fight between Pimblett and Topuria would thus give the winner a necessary leg up and an opportunity to return to the title picture.
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UFC’s most heated rivalry
Topuria and Pimblett have been involved in one of the UFC’s most personal rivalries since their altercation before UFC London in 2022.
The first confrontation came when Topuria challenged Pimblett over comments he had previously made about Georgia.
Pimblett told a Georgian fighter over Twitter (now X), “Shut up you fake Russian,” before going on to say, “No wonder the Russians terrorised you.”
Topuria, being Georgian-born and raised, took offence to those remarks and stepped in.
Pimblett then proceeded to throw a bottle of hand sanitiser at Topuria before security and members of both teams separated the pair.
The rivalry continued through interviews, press conferences and social media.
At the time, however, the two fighters were competing in different weight classes, which hindered the UFC’s ability to make the fight.
Now that Topuria has moved up to lightweight, the UFC has a chance to finally settle this rivalry.
After Topuria knocked out Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title, Pimblett entered the cage for a face off.
The heated exchange started with Topuria shoving Pimblett, which seemingly foreshadowed a potential fight between the two.
Gaethje subsequently destroyed the plans of a potential match-up by defeating both fighters.
Since Topuria’s loss to Gaethje, Pimblett has continued to escalate the rivalry, accusing Topuria of quitting against Gaethje and questioning whether he possesses the mental toughness required to recover from his first professional defeat.
He even mocked Topuria with the supposed stool used during the corner stoppage after it was reportedly purchased as a collector’s item.
There is now a very lengthy history between the two, meaning the UFC would be missing out on a huge opportunity if they were to not make this fight.
It would become easily one of the most commercially successful fights in recent history, even potentially earning itself a numbered UFC card without featuring a title fight (which rarely happens).
The match-up just makes sense in every way.
It’s perfect competitively, commercially and for the future of the lightweight division.
Both fighters are major European stars with enormous draws.
Combined with their genuine dislike for each other, the build-up would be exciting without the UFC having to push a manufactured storyline.
And above all else, both Topuria and Pimblett are in need of a major victory that proves they are deserving of a title shot.
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Topuria would beat Pimblett
The fight would likely begin with Topuria pushing forward aggressively, relying on his superior power, and stalking Pimblett back towards the cage.
Pimblett’s path to victory would be to survive the early rounds and use his grappling and wrestling to avoid the cage, slow the fight down and control things on the ground.
However, Topuria is an accomplished wrestler and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, meaning Pimblett may not have as much of an advantage on the ground against Topuria as he usually would have.
Given the weaknesses that Gaethje exposed in Topuria’s game plan, there may be a chance that Pimblett’s endurance, combined with his iron chin and durability, could make the contest more competitive in the later rounds.
But Pimblett is defensively vulnerable, and it’s difficult to believe that he would be able to absorb Topuria’s powerful combinations consistently.
Topuria would most likely finish the fight via knockout or strikes somewhere between the first and third rounds.
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